Research Tools — Dr. Sinchan Ghosh

IIASA Postdoctoral Research

Scandinavian Species Distribution Models

Grid-level density and habitat projections for moose (Alces alces), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and grey wolf (Canis lupus) across 374 Scandinavian grid cells under five IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways — designed for foresters, game hunters, and wildlife managers.

3 species 5 IPCC SSPs Map 2025–2060 History 1999–2060 374 grid cells Machine-learning SDMs Predator–prey ODEs

The tool couples hierarchical and stacked species distribution models — integrating climate, vegetation, and land-cover predictors — with ODE-based wolf–ungulate trophic interaction layers (Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Chapron et al., 2016). The map slider restricts projections to 2025–2060, while per-grid time series retain the full 1999–2060 record so stakeholders can read projections against baseline variability. The application runs entirely in-browser via stlite; no install is required.

Open Application

SpeciesMoose · Roe Deer · Wolf

Climate scenariosSSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5

Map window2025–2060

Time-series window1999–2060 (historical + projection)

Spatial extent374 Scandinavian grid cells

Modelling approachHierarchical ML SDMs + ODE

RuntimeIn-browser (stlite / Pyodide)

Target usersForesters · Game hunters · Wildlife managers

GitHub repositoryWolf-model

Scandinavian Species Distribution Models — v2.0

Moose · Roe Deer · Grey Wolf · Five IPCC SSPs · Map 2025–2060 · Time series 1999–2060

Live · In-browser

Open in full screen for the best experience — first load takes 20–40 seconds

IIASA Postdoctoral Research

Forage Energy Meta-Database

A curated, interactive meta-database of plant metabolizable energy content, digestibility, and Jacobs' D foraging preference indices for boreal ungulates — enabling quantitative habitat management and population energy-budget parameterisation.

72 records 3 species 4 seasons ME (MJ/kg DM) Jacobs' D index Open contribution

The application synthesises Menke energy coefficients with Jacobs' D preference indices to compute preference-weighted metabolizable energy (e_p) for each plant species. Use the Database tab to browse and filter records, the Calculator to compute energy budgets, and the Contribute tab to submit new data.

View Source on GitHub

Records72 plant–species–season entries

SpeciesMoose · Roe Deer · Red Deer

SeasonsSpring · Summer · Autumn · Winter

Key variablesME, Jacobs D, e_p, Confidence

Application tabsDatabase · Calculator · Contribute · About

Use caseWildlife management · Population modelling

GitHub repositoryForage-energy-content-meta-database

Forage Energy Database

Animal Forage Metabolizable Energy & Preference Index · 72 records · 3 species

Interactive · Open Access

Open in full screen for the best experience

Frontiers in Ecology & Evolution (in review)

AlderGuard — Alnus Ecoepidemic Decision-Support

An in-browser decision-support tool for the black alder (Alnus glutinosa) — alder leaf beetle (Agelastica alni) — tachinid parasitoid (Meigenia mutabilis) — insectivorous-bird ecoepidemic system. Pick any of 41 Natura 2000 alluvial-forest sites across Europe on the interactive map and the 23 model parameters auto-calibrate from a continuously-updated literature metadatabase.

41 EU sites 23 parameters Natura 2000 habitat 91E0 Literature-pooled 95% CI LLM literature agent Hybrid ODE + annual map Python + R packages

AlderGuard couples a within-season 4-state ODE system (susceptible larvae, parasitised larvae, adult parasitoids, defoliation) with an annual Beverton-Holt discrete map for beetle reproduction, parasitoid overwinter survival, and canopy feedback. A scheduled GitHub-Actions literature agent continuously grows the parameter metadatabase from OpenAlex, Europe PMC, Semantic Scholar, and Crossref, feeding reviewed values and 95 % confidence intervals onto every slider. Companion Python (pip install git+...#subdirectory=alderguard-py) and R (remotes::install_github) packages reproduce every analysis programmatically.

Open Application Source code & packages

Target systemAlnus glutinosa · Agelastica alni · Meigenia mutabilis · passerines

Sites41 Natura 2000 alluvial forests (19 countries)

ModelHybrid within-season ODE + annual map

Parameters23 (attack rate, mortalities, carrying capacity, control efforts, thresholds)

Core featuresSimulation · Equilibrium · Bifurcation · Fitting · Early warnings · Control

Literature agentOpenAlex + Europe PMC + Semantic Scholar + Crossref · daily cron

RuntimeIn-browser (Plotly.js + Leaflet); no install

Companion packagesPython 3 + R (same model, same calibration JSON)

GitHub repositoryalderguard

Alnus glutinosaNikanos, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.5

Agelastica alniAndré Karwath, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.5

Tachinid fly — Meigenia mutabilis (Tachinidae)Muhammad Mahdi Karim, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

AlderGuard — Ecoepidemic Decision-Support

41 European Alnus sites · 23 parameters · Literature-pooled CIs · Daily LLM metadatabase update

Live · In-browser

Open in full screen for the best experience

Cite: Ghosh, S. et al. (2026). AlderGuard: Hybrid seasonal-annual modelling and early warning signals for the Alnus-beetle-parasitoid-bird ecoepidemic system. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution (manuscript submitted).