Dr. Sinchan Ghoshসিঞ্চন ঘোষ · IIASA

Stakeholder tools

Research applications

Decision-support tools that translate the research into interactive platforms for conservation managers, wildlife ecologists and game planners — each one runs in your browser.


IIASA postdoctoral research

Scandinavian Species Distribution Models

Grid-level density and habitat projections for moose (Alces alces), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and grey wolf (Canis lupus) across 374 Scandinavian grid cells under five IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways — designed for foresters, game hunters and wildlife managers.

The tool couples hierarchical and stacked species distribution models — integrating climate, vegetation and land-cover predictors — with ODE-based wolf–ungulate trophic interaction layers (Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Chapron et al., 2016). The map slider restricts projections to 2025–2060, while per-grid time series retain the full 1999–2060 record so stakeholders can read projections against baseline variability. The application runs entirely in the browser via stlite; no install is required.

Species
Moose · Roe deer · Wolf
Scenarios
SSP1-1.9 · 1-2.6 · 2-4.5 · 3-7.0 · 5-8.5
Map window
2025–2060
Time series
1999–2060
Extent
374 grid cells
Approach
Hierarchical ML SDMs + ODE
Runtime
In-browser (stlite / Pyodide)
Users
Foresters · hunters · managers
Repository
Wolf-model
Alces alces
Alces alcesPublic domain
Capreolus capreolus
Capreolus capreolusCC BY-SA
Canis lupus
Canis lupusCC BY-SA
Scandinavian Species Distribution Models — v2.0
Moose · roe deer · grey wolf · five IPCC SSPs · map 2025–2060 · time series 1999–2060
Live · in-browser

IIASA postdoctoral research

Forage Energy Meta-Database

A curated, interactive meta-database of plant metabolizable energy content, digestibility and Jacobs' D foraging preference indices for boreal ungulates — enabling quantitative habitat management and population energy-budget parameterisation.

The application synthesises Menke energy coefficients with Jacobs' D preference indices to compute preference-weighted metabolizable energy (ep) for each plant species. Use the Database tab to browse and filter records, the Calculator to compute energy budgets, and the Contribute tab to submit new data.

Records
72 plant–species–season entries
Species
Moose · Roe deer · Red deer
Seasons
Spring · Summer · Autumn · Winter
Variables
ME · Jacobs' D · ep · confidence
Tabs
Database · Calculator · Contribute · About
Use case
Wildlife management · population modelling
Alces alces
Alces alcesPublic domain
Capreolus capreolus
Capreolus capreolusCC BY-SA
Cervus elaphus
Cervus elaphusCC BY-SA 3.0
Forage Energy Database
Animal forage metabolizable energy & preference index · 72 records · 3 species
Live · in-browser

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics & Statistics (2026)

AlderIPM-Sim — Alnus eco-epidemic IPM simulator

A browser-based decision-support tool for managing alder leaf beetle (Agelastica alni) outbreaks in European black alder (Alnus glutinosa) forests. It couples a within-season four-state ODE system with an annual discrete map, adds parasitoid biocontrol by Meigenia mutabilis and generalist predation by passerine birds, and lets managers predict regime shifts, detect early-warning signals, fit field data and compare integrated pest-management strategies.

The within-season module integrates a four-state ODE (susceptible larvae S, parasitised larvae I, adult parasitoids F, cumulative defoliation D) with fourth-order Runge–Kutta over the ~50-day larval vulnerability window; a Holling type II functional response governs parasitism. An annual discrete map then handles between-year beetle reproduction (Beverton–Holt), parasitoid overwinter survival, and canopy feedback (K = K0·exp(−φD)). Companion Python (pip install "git+...#subdirectory=alder-ipm-sim-py") and R (remotes::install_github) packages share the same model, parameter names and outputs, so any browser session reproduces verbatim in code.

System
A. glutinosa · A. alni · M. mutabilis · passerines
Model
Within-season ODE + annual Beverton–Holt map
States
S · I · F · D (RK4, ~50-day window)
Features
Simulation · equilibrium · bifurcation · fitting · early warnings · control
Analyses
LHS-PRCC · basin stability · resistance & resilience
Early warnings
Variance · autocorrelation · spectral reddening · Kendall τ
Runtime
In-browser (Plotly.js + Leaflet)
Packages
Python 3 + R, same model and outputs
Repository
AlderIPM-Sim
Alnus glutinosa
Alnus glutinosaNikanos, CC BY-SA 2.5
Agelastica alni
Agelastica alniAndré Karwath, CC BY-SA 2.5
Tachinidae
Meigenia mutabilis (Tachinidae) — M. M. Karim, CC BY-SA 3.0
AlderIPM-Sim — Alnus eco-epidemic IPM simulator
Within-season ODE + annual map · regime-shift early warnings · IPM control comparison · Python & R packages
Live · in-browser

Cite: Ghosh, S., & Singh, S. (2026). Adaptive stability of the Black alder ecoepidemic system: integrated intervention alone prevents regime shift under phenological variability. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 12, 1831903. https://doi.org/10.3389/fams.2026.1831903